导语 /简介/
聚焦全球能源领域热点趋势,解读世界能源战略政策,传播全球能源信息,石化译站将以国际化视野为您带来海外媒体在成品油、新能源、加油站、便利店等领域的最新资讯。
天然气价格飙升,原油库存减少。
煤炭生产紧张,燃料供应紧张。
冬天来了。最近,全球许多主要能源消耗地区。
面对能源短缺的困境。
这给经济复苏和能源安全蒙上了阴影。
专家指出,短期内全球能源价格不会明显回落.
石油供应可能提前达到峰值。
“根据目前的趋势,全球石油供应可能会比需求更早达到峰值,"摩根士丹利研究公司在路透社发表的一份报告中写道。该银行的分析师表示,“地球已经为可以安全排放的碳量设定了界限。因此,石油消费需要达到峰值”。
“从目前的趋势来看,全球石油供应可能会早于需求达到峰值,”摩根士丹利的研究部门在路透社本周发布的一份报告中写道。
“地球为可以安全排放的碳量设定了界限。因此,石油消费需要达到峰值,”摩根士丹利分析师表示。
8224d18a6047df0fe4de391" alt="2021年油价反弹远未结束">
当前问题在于,石油消费并没有见顶。大多数人估计,最早要到这个年代末期才会达到峰值。根据欧佩克最新的年度展望,该组织预计全球石油需求将在本世纪30年代中期继续增长至1.08亿桶/日,之后将在2045年之前保持平稳。其他一些分析师预计,需求将在本世纪20年代末达到峰值。
The problem with the world is that oil consumption - wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all - is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates.
OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, as per the cartel’s latest annual outlook. Some other analysts expect peak demand at some point in the late 2020s.
然而,对新供应的投资严重滞后于全球石油需求的增长。2020年疫情危机过后,需求再次增长,这与2020年初的预期相反,要知道,当时人们预期世界石油消费永远不会回到之前的水平。但是,目前需求距离达到并超过疫情爆发前水平,可能仅需几个月的时间。
Investment in new supply, however, is severely lagging global oil demand growth.Demand is growing again after the 2020 COVID crisis and, contrary to some expectations from early 2020 that the world’s oil consumption would never return to pre-pandemic levels, demand is currently just a few months away from hitting and exceeding those levels.
供应缺口将在未来几年逼近
在欧佩克+协议范围之外,供应似乎受到限制。去年新增投资跌至15年最低点。据著名咨询机构伍德麦肯兹今年年初预计,2020年全球上游投资降至3500亿美元,为15年来的最低水平。
Supply, on the other hand, looks constrained beyond the OPEC+ deal horizon. New investment last year slumped to a decade-and-a-half low. Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year.
尽管油价高达每桶80美元,但预计今年的投资不会大幅增加。因为超级石油巨头坚持资本纪律,并承诺净零排放目标,其中一些公司计划通过限制投资和开发非核心、几乎不赚钱的新石油项目来实现这一目标。
考虑到石油需求仍将增长,至少在未来几年内,对新增供应投资不足将是中长期的一个主要问题。尽管进行了能源转型,但需求不会消失,未来几年还需要新的供应来取代不断下降的产量和储量。
Investment is not expected to materially pick up this year, either, despite $80 oil. That’s because supermajors stick to capital discipline and pledge net-zero emission targets, part of which some of them plan to reach by curbing investment and developments in non-core little-profitable new oil projects.
Considering that oil demand will still grow, at least for a few more years, underinvestment in new supply would be a major problem in the medium and long term. Despite the energy transition, demand will not just vanish, and new supply will be needed for years to come to replace declining production and reserves.
欧佩克表示,未来25年,石油行业将需要大量投资才能满足需求。到2045年,该行业将需要累计11.8万亿美元的上游、中游和下游石油相关投资。
The oil industry will need massive investments over the next 25 years in order to meet demand, according to OPEC. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC says.
10月,法国道达尔能源首席执行官潘彦磊在能源情报论坛上表示,如果石油行业停止对新增供应的投资,到2030年油价将“飙升至顶点”,一些2050年前实现净零的设想证明了这一点。潘彦磊表示,“如果我们在2020年停止投资,就会把所有这些资源留在地下……然后价格就会飙升。即使在发达国家,这也是一个大问题。”
Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at France’s TotalEnergies, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum this month that oil prices would “rocket to the roof” by 2030 if the industry were to stop investments in new supply, as some scenarios for net-zero by 2050 suggest. “If we stop investing in 2020, we leave all these resources in the ground ... and then the price will rocket to the roof. And even in developed countries, it will be a big issue,” Pouyanné said.
每桶100美元的油价不再是一个离谱的预测
市场不会再像2020年初那样,认为三位数的油价是一个离谱的预测。美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究全球主管弗朗西斯科·布兰奇预计,油价将在2022年9月触及每桶100美元。如果今年冬天的气温远低于预期,油价可能会更早触及每桶100美元。
A triple-digit oil price is no longer an outrageous prediction as it would have been in early 2020. Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, expects oil to hit $100 by September 2022, or even earlier if this winter is much colder than expected.
布兰奇在9月底告诉彭博社,过去18个月市场供应严重投资不足,但需求正在恢复。他表示,“投资不足的问题不容易解决,与此同时,需求正在飙升。我们正在进入能源紧缩时代,我们不想使用煤炭,想越来越少地使用天然气,想摆脱石油。”他指出,尽管油价不太可能持续保持在三位数,但投资不足已经成为石油行业“长久问题”。
Demand is coming back, while we have seen severe underinvestment in supply the last 18 months, Blanch told Bloomberg at the end of September. “The underinvestment problem cannot be solved easily, and at the same time we have surging demand,” he said.
“We are moving into a straightjacket for energy, we don’t want to use coal, we want to use less and less gas, we want to move away from oil,” Blanch told Bloomberg. While oil is unlikely to sit at triple digits for a sustained period of time, underinvestment has become “a multi-year problem” for the industry, Blanch noted.
即使油价不能维持在每桶100美元,但未来的供应紧张态势仍将推高油价,导致不可持续的价格飙升。尽管气候活动人士希望停止对新增供应的投资,但随着石油需求继续增长,石油行业和世界将无法承受相应代价。
Even if oil doesn’t stay at $100 a barrel, a supply crunch down the road would nevertheless move the floor under oil prices higher and lead to unsustainable price spikes. As much as climate activists want a stop to investment in new supply, the industry and the world cannot afford it because oil demand continues to grow.
为积极应对国内外成品油市场变化
中国石化坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院
关于近期能源保供的部署要求
切实发挥中央企业“顶梁柱”“主力军”作用
迅速启动油品增产增供
全力稳定价格,有序保障市场供应
销售公司党委第一时间贯彻落实
统筹部署柴油保供各项工作
各级销售企业全力以赴
做好内外协调,提高资源运行效率
以实际行动坚定不移地
做好能源安全保障工作
销售华北
销售华北分公司充分发挥区域物流中心职能,统筹区域内资源,加强产销储运各环节衔接,密切关注炼厂产运存和省市进销存动态平衡,全力保障资源供应稳定。协调区内炼厂努力增加柴油资源总量。通过协调天津石化、燕山石化、齐鲁石化、青岛石化、青岛炼化、沧州炼化增加出厂量,缓解了资源紧张的局面。跟踪柴油实时进销存动态,保证资源应急供应。提前做好柴油出厂安排,在保证区内省市资源稳定供应基础上,将有限资源紧急投放到内蒙、陕西、湖北、安徽、宁夏、青海、甘肃等地,确保零售终端供应。
销售华中
销售华中分公司扛起区域保供创效主体责任,按照“市场导向、挖潜增效、产销联动、就近供应、重点保障”的原则,充分发挥大区资源统筹和运行调度中心的职能。紧盯柴油资源主要集散地的价格,每日监控油库库存、出库情况,做好柴油资源进出库滚动平衡,保障柴油出库需求得到满足;积极协调生产企业挖掘柴油资源供应能力,及时组织资源出厂,争取尽可能多的资源投放市场,并加大前期统采合同的催调,择机进行柴油实物资源采购,切实补充资源缺口;协调国家管网,推迟管道施工,确保运行不停,同时优化输送批次计划,调整柴油下载节奏。并建立各省市日出库量预警机制,提前做好应对,及时补充柴油缺口。
销售华南
销售华南分公司协同区内各省经营骨干成立资源优化团队,搭建省市—大区—炼厂信息沟通平台。通过及时协调炼厂超前调整生产结构,优先组织国内柴油出厂运输。并积极主动优化珠三角管输运行,增加柴油顺序输送批次,实现粤西炼厂向珠三角柴油快速递推。“见缝插针”地利用海南洋浦开港时间窗口,组织4万吨级大船汽柴油拼装运输。及时与国家管网协调,大幅调整西南管道批次运行计划。多措并举强化管铁联运、水铁联运等一二次物流衔接。
销售西北
销售西北分公司充分发挥大区统采优势,立即启动柴油资源日进销存平衡,并按照保重点、保民生的原则,有针对性组织柴油资源发运弥补缺口。公司各层级积极协调塔河炼化,提高柴油实物出厂量;并安排专人赴宁夏就地协调柴油资源,全力保障柴油资源供应。
做好能源保供工作
中国石化主动担当作为
11月柴油计划排产比去年同期增长29%
此外,中国石化
天然气保供各项准备工作正有序开展
供暖季将向市场供应天然气270亿立方米
全面保供今冬明春
为美好生活加油
保供!我们一直在行动!
来源:中国石化朝阳e站
责编:周显玉
内容来源网络,如有侵权,联系删除,本文地址:https://www.230890.com/zhan/65652.html